Market Overview: Resilient Economy, Soft Freight Volumes
The U.S. logistics sector in Q3 2025 presented a mixed picture of economic resilience and muted freight activity. Broadly, the economy avoided recession and consumer spending held up, yet freight volumes remained subdued. Shipment counts have continued trending below last year's levels – for instance, the Cass Freight Index showed August freight shipments down about 9.3% year-over-year. This ongoing freight downturn follows the post-pandemic correction seen in 2023–2024, and it reflects destocking and cautious import patterns by shippers.
At the same time, overall freight expenditures were roughly flat versus a year ago, indicating higher transportation rates per shipment despite lower volumes. In fact, average freight costs per shipment are nearly 10% higher year-on-year, due in part to a shift from LTL to truckload modes and carriers securing rate increases to cover inflationary costs.
Encouragingly, capacity adjustments are tightening the market. Many small trucking fleets exited over the past year, which has helped bring supply closer in line with demand. By mid-2025, industry indices recorded the first sequential gains in freight volumes in nearly three years, and the ratio of loads-to-trucks on spot markets began rising. Market conditions are better than a year ago from a carrier perspective – the exodus of struggling carriers and operators is creating a more balanced environment.
While freight volumes remain below their peak, the worst of the freight recession appears to be over, and analysts predict a gradual rebound in rates through the end of the year.
Intermodal and Drayage: Sustained Momentum in Container Freight
Intermodal freight – the movement of shipping containers by rail and truck – has been a relative bright spot. International container volumes have surged, thanks to strong imports and easing supply chain bottlenecks. Last year's data showed an impressive +9.8% year-over-year jump in total intermodal volume in Q3 2024, led by a 15% spike in international (port) containers.
This momentum carried into 2025. In mid-2025, U.S. ports handled near-record cargo as retailers rushed to bring in goods ahead of potential new tariffs. July 2025 saw a flood of imports, with container throughput up ~1.8% from the prior year and about 20% higher than June. This surge – effectively an early peak season – kept intermodal rail ramps and drayage carriers busy.
However, the import boom was short-term and policy-driven. As new tariffs on goods from China, Mexico, and other trade partners loomed, many importers pulled forward orders, creating a spike followed by an expected lull. Industry forecasts indicate that fall 2025 port volumes will moderate, with major gateways like Los Angeles/Long Beach projected to see high-single to double-digit percentage declines year-on-year in Q4.
Looking ahead, logistics teams in intermodal and drayage are watching trade policy closely. The tariff environment remains volatile. Many beneficial cargo owners have begun diversifying sourcing and using East Coast and Gulf Coast ports to mitigate risk. Overall, the third quarter demonstrated that intermodal is firmly back as a growth engine for freight, and drayage carriers will remain essential partners in the inland movement of those containers.
Freight Brokers and 3PLs: Navigating a Shifting Market
For freight brokers, 3PLs, and other non-asset logistics providers, Q3 2025 was a period of adjustment and guarded optimism. The soft freight market of late 2024 and early 2025 squeezed margins for many brokers, but conditions are now stabilizing. In a recent industry survey, 39% of freight brokers reported that spot rates in the first half of 2025 were higher than the prior year, and a striking 78% said their contract rates were higher year-over-year.
Large third-party logistics firms (3PLs) also saw volumes hold up better than expected in certain segments. The global 3PL market is booming at an estimated $1.4 trillion in 2025, with the U.S. accounting for about $300 billion of that. Growth is fueled by continued outsourcing of supply chain functions and the relentless rise of e-commerce. Approximately 95% of online retailers now use 3PL providers for fulfillment or transport.
That said, margin pressures and competition are intense. According to a 2025 survey, 72% of 3PLs cited rising operational costs as their number-one challenge. Technology investment was the second-biggest concern (56% of 3PLs), reflecting the urgency of tech upgrades.
To stand out, brokers and 3PLs are investing in value-added services and efficiency gains. Many now offer consulting, direct-to-store delivery, and even sustainability initiatives as part of their service portfolio.
The Rising Role of Automation and AI in Logistics
One striking trend in 2025 is the accelerating adoption of technology, especially automation and artificial intelligence (AI), across the logistics industry. Facing labor shortages and cost pressures, logistics companies are turning to tech to do more with less. Nearly half of all logistics firms have now implemented AI or machine-learning solutions in some part of their operation.
Among organizations that have adopted AI for back-office or operational workflows, 98% say it's an important or even vital component of their business. In other words, virtually all logistics leaders who've seen AI in action recognize it as a game-changer. And investment is pouring in – about 70% of industry executives report they are willing to invest further in AI-powered automation to fuel growth.
AI is making an impact primarily in streamlining manual, repetitive processes. For example, back-office tasks like invoice auditing, track-and-trace calls, document processing, and data entry are now being handled by intelligent automation. By automating tasks such as invoice validation, exception alerts, and paperwork processing, AI can dramatically reduce errors and speed up workflows.
Not surprisingly, logistics tech providers have proliferated, offering AI-driven solutions that can plug into existing systems. One example is Ventus AI, which provides an automation platform for freight brokers and 3PLs. Ventus's AI agents can handle core operational workflows – quoting rates, building loads in a TMS, tracking shipments, and even generating invoices – without any custom IT integration.
The accuracy and speed of AI are also proving superior: modern AI document processing can achieve ~99% accuracy on reading invoices or bills, minimizing costly billing errors. Given these benefits, it's easy to see why nearly 2 in 3 logistics professionals say AI is already a significant contributor to their daily work.
Outlook and Strategies for Logistics Leaders
As we leave Q3 and head into the final stretch of 2025, the logistics industry is poised at an inflection point. The consensus is cautiously optimistic: most analysts and industry players anticipate a modest uptick in freight volumes and rates in Q4, barring any macroeconomic shock.
To thrive in this environment, logistics and supply chain executives are prioritizing a few key strategies:
• Embrace Automation and AI: Practically 98% of logistics leaders affirm the importance of AI in back-office operations. Adopting automation for track-and-trace, billing, customer updates, and other workflows can deliver immediate ROI through cost savings and better service.
• Focus on Cost Efficiency: With rising operational costs a top concern for 72% of 3PLs, companies must continue trimming waste and improving utilization.
• Build Resilience in the Supply Chain: Strategies like nearshoring, diversifying carrier partners, and holding strategic buffer inventory are gaining traction.
• Enhance Visibility and Customer Service: Shippers increasingly expect real-time tracking and proactive communication. Logistics providers should leverage telematics, cargo sensors, and cloud platforms to give customers 24/7 visibility of their freight.
Q3's lessons underscore a clear message: those who innovate and adapt will drive the next chapter of growth in logistics.